"Hey, John. Do you have a minute?"
I turned back as I was about to descend the stairs and recognized a
40-ish man I'd seen shooting craps as I'd started making my rounds.
I was in no rush.
"I have a theory about craps, and I wanted to know what you think. Two
theories, really. The silly one is really my brother's."
And...
"He likes to play all the goofy propositions. You know, he bets the 12
and the Yo (11). Any craps. Any 7."
The casinos must love him.
"Yeah, they comp him pretty good, at that. But his theory is that if he
wins one more pass bet than average in a short time, he barely does more
than break even. But if there's one extra 12, he makes a nice profit
because of the 30-1 payoff."
I don't suppose he's considered that it's a lot easier to win an extra
pass bet than it is to make an extra 12. Pass bets win 49.3 percent of
the time. One-roll propositions on 12 win only once per 36 rolls, on
average. Profitable sessions on the pass line come a lot more often than
profitable runs on 12.
"I've tried to tell him that."
There's a flip side, too. Lose one more pass bet than expected in a
short time and you have a small loss. If in 36 decisions you lose one
more bet on 12 than average, you're left with zero wins and a big loss.
In the long run, you'll lose $1.41 per $100 wagered on the pass line,
but $13.89 on 12. And since the propositions are decided in one roll,
instead of the average of nearly three on the line, your risk is higher
on the props.
"I told you it was goofy."
So what about your own theory?
"Well, I've read that the house edge is 1.4 percent on the pass line and
1.5 percent on placing the 6 and 8, right?"
To be a little pedantic, it's 1.41 percent on the line, 1.52 percent on
the 6 and 8.
"All right. And other than the 7, the 6 and 8 are the numbers that come
most often, right?"
Right. There are 36 possible combinations of two six-sided dice. Six of
those total 7, making it the most common number, followed by the five
ways to make 6 and the five ways to make 8.
"So on the line, I'll win most often if the point is 6 or 8, right?"
Assuming a point is established on the comeout, yes.
"But to win on one of those numbers, the shooter has to roll it twice
before he rolls a 7. He has to roll it on the comeout, then roll it
again without a 7.
"So isn't it better to just place the 6 and 8? Then you have the most
frequent winners, and the shooter only has to roll it once. Doesn't that
make up for that little difference in the house edge?"
No.
"Why not?"
Because with a place bet, there is no comeout roll, and the comeout is
the best part of betting the pass line. You win on the comeout, without
having to worry about any number coming up twice, if the roll is 7 or 11.
"But you lose on 2, 3 or 12."
True, but there are six ways to roll 7 -- 6-1, 5-2, 4-3, 3-4, 2-5, and
1-6. And there are two ways to roll 11 -- 6-5 and 5-6. But there is only
one way to roll 2 -- 1-1; one way to roll 12 -- 6-6, and two ways to
roll 3 -- 2-1 and 1-2. So there are eight ways to win on the comeout,
and only four ways to lose.
"And that's enough to overcome the problem of having to roll a number
twice?"
Sure. The pass bet is going to be decided on the comeout a third of the
time, and on those rolls, you're going to win twice as often as you
lose. That's an awfully powerful advantage.
Think of the pass bet as two wagers in one. First, you're wagering on
the comeout, where you win twice as often as you lose. If a point number
rolls instead, your bet stays on the table, and what you're left with is
similar to a place bet -- a little better because you can back it with
free odds. At the point the pass bet becomes like a place bet, the
shooter has already rolled the number once and needs roll it just once
more to win.
So you have a two-part bet: the comeout, on which you have a big edge,
and a potential place bet. If you could bet the portion on which you
have the edge separately, wouldn't you do it?
"I guess I would. So you're saying always to bet the line instead of
placing the numbers?"
No. The house edge when placing 6 and 8 is small enough to be acceptable
to a player who wants to be certain of having the most frequently rolled
numbers. There's no way to assure that on the pass line. But in the long
run, pass bets will lose $1.41 per $100 wagered, while place bets on 6
and 8 will drop $1.52 per $100.
"Well, I still like my theory."
You pay your money and you take your choice.
For more information about craps, we recommend:
The Craps Answer Book by John Grochowski
The Casino Answer Book by John Grochowski
Forever Craps by Frank Scoblete
Beat the Craps Out of the Casinos: How to Play Craps and Win! by
Frank Scoblete
The Captain’s Craps Revolution! by Frank Scoblete
Sharpshooter Craps Audio Cassette Tape (60 minutes) with Frank
Scoblete
